South China Morning Review 20170922

Black early review

1. Rebar: rebound short

Yesterday Tangshan billet fell 80 reported 3620, the country's finished materials generally weakened, Shanghai 20mm HRB400 fell 50 reported 3980 / ton. Yesterday's futures price increased its position and fell, and the night oscillated.

Social stocks and steel mill stocks fell this week, and demand in the peak season was flat. Environmental supervision has curbed some construction demand, coupled with weak macro data, while construction and production remained high, and downstream traders' willingness to purchase was low. Recently, environmental protection and production restrictions have been intertwined, and Beijing and Tianjin construction sites have been shut down, which is unfavorable demand; many steel mills are beginning or near to limit production, which is unfavorable to the supply side. The limited production is expected to affect the production of molten iron by 32 million to 37 million tons, and the output of crude steel is 3550 to 41 million tons, which is not easy to quantify. In the short term, steel prices will still be weakly adjusted, try to short the market, refer to the 3700 first-line pressure. The virtual profit of the thread fluctuated.

2. Hot Roll: Cautiously Empty

Yesterday, the national hot coil price fell, Shanghai 4.75mm hot volume reported 4020 (-60). After the sharp decline in the price of yesterday, the night trading was adjusted.

In August, macro data collectively fell, manufacturing demand was flat, and inventories remained stable in the past two weeks. Environmental protection caused some downstream processing enterprises to suspend production and rectify and suppress some demand. At the supply end, the recent steel mills in Hebei Province are opening or about to limit production, and the impact on the production of hot coils is expected to be large. The short-term hot coil prices are affected by the sluggish downstream demand and continue to weaken. But the supply end is followed or provides some support. Be cautious and empty. Hot rolls buy 1 empty 5 hold, buy hot coils can be involved in bargain hunting.

3. Iron ore: rebound short

Yesterday, the port PB powder was 530 yuan / wet tons (-15), Platts 62 reported 63.15 (-4.7). The price of the night trading is oscillating.

The demand for steel is weak, the increase in stocks has suppressed the black system, and the steel mills in Hebei have started or are about to limit production. The iron ore period is now weakening together, with a large decline. At the supply end, the recent shipments of seaborne shipments remained at a high level, and the volume of arrivals also increased. The decline in port stocks slowed down, the shortage of high-grade mines was alleviated, and the premiums fell slightly. The average inventory of steel mills fell by one day to 24 days. If the environmental protection and production limit is strictly implemented, the demand for iron ore will be greatly reduced by 5,000 to 62 million tons, but the space for high grade ore is limited, and the price of the mine is under pressure for a long time. In September, the water was delivered to the market, and the price of the PB powder was nearly 50 yuan. I1801 rebounded short, refer to 500 pressure.

4. Coal char: the night plate is weak

Coke, the price was steady yesterday. Recently, steel prices have weakened, black collectives have retreated, and steel mills have taken the lead in limiting production. Coke futures prices have fallen sharply. Coke coking stocks are low, and there is a boosting power; but steel mills are neutral in stock, coupled with the recent weak steel prices, the increase in blast furnace production, may not accept price increases, the coke steel game may increase, the spot may hold steady. At present, the price discount has exceeded 10%, the coking plant has gradually started to limit production, and the impact of both ends of the supply and demand of coke in the later period of environmental protection, between the small shortage and the small surplus, depends on the intensity and rhythm of environmental protection. The short-term price is expected to usher in a short-term rebound, and the medium-term price will remain weak.

Coking coal, the price was steady yesterday. At present, the overall supply and demand is stable, but in some areas due to safety inspection or transportation problems, supply is tight. The stock of coking coal in steel mills is neutral, the inventory of coking plants is high, and the environmental protection and production limit is expected to suppress the replenishment power. The inventory of production sites is still falling, but the downstream inventory continues to rise. Spot coal prices are still running strongly, but the discounted delivery in September will definitely drag down futures pricing. The expected short-term expectations for coking, environmental protection and limited production in winter steel mills will continue to suppress coking coal. Coal prices fluctuated weakly and rebounded short.

5. Glass:

Recently, the overall trend of the glass spot market is still acceptable. The production enterprises can basically achieve the current production and sales balance, and the manufacturers' confidence in the later market is better than that of traders and processing enterprises. At the current peak of the traditional sales season, it is normal for manufacturers to maintain the balance of production and sales in the current period. From the perspective of price increases, there has been a markedly exhausted situation. Recently, only Shahe regional manufacturers plan to increase by about 10 yuan next Monday. There is no price increase plan in other regions. The main reason is that the National Day holiday is approaching, which will affect the normal outbound of the manufacturer. The increase in spot prices is also increasing the difficulty for glass processing companies to undertake new orders and fulfill orders. In the futures, the 01 contract last night remained in a volatile trend and closed flat. Close to the long holiday, it is recommended to continue to wait and see.

White sugar early review

Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) raw sugar futures closed higher on Thursday, boosted by expectations of a decline in Brazilian sugar production. Zheng sugar oscillated sideways at night, and the price did not change much. In terms of spot, Liuzhou middlemen offer 6540-6580 yuan / ton, Nanning middlemen offer 6590 yuan / ton. From a technical point of view, the daily line level, MACD green column shrinks, the fast and slow line is close to the gold fork, KDJ gold fork up, the bottom 6100 support, the upper 6270 pressure. On the 30-minute line, the MACD red column is expanded, the speed line and the gold fork are up, the KDJ gold fork is up but the position is high, and the 120-day moving average pressure is concerned. Trading strategy: It is advisable to put high and low sucks in the day and lay more singles in the middle line.

Oil and fat oil early review

Information:

1. The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) reported that US soybean export sales in the most recent week was 2.338 million tons, much higher than the market estimate of 1.2-1.5 million tons. The US Department of Agriculture also announced that private exporters exported 132,000 tons of US soybeans to China, which will be shipped in the 2017/18 marketing year beginning on September 1.

2. Joko Supriyono, president of the Indonesian Palm Oil Producers Association (GAPKI), said at the United Nations Good Growth Partnership that Indonesia will increase palm oil production to 42 million tons by 2020.

3. On September 20, the soybean meal Nantong dealer 2800, rose 20 yuan / ton, Cargill 1801 + 80 (10-January). Zhangjiagang traders quoted 6,000 6000 palm oil, up 40 yuan / ton. Jiangsu Zhangjiagang trader level soybean oil 6350, down 50 yuan / ton. The first-grade soybean oil 11-month basis contract price Y1801 + 180 yuan / ton. Malaysian palm oil FOB offer September shipping price of 710 US dollars / ton, flat, October shipping price of 702.5 US dollars / ton, flat, September shipping time to the port duty cost 5890-5950 yuan / ton, 50 points higher than the Guangzhou port Compared with Tianjin Port 600717, the stock bar is 90 yuan/ton higher.

operating:

1. The price of the US soybean 11 has remained volatile. Even the soybean meal swayed from the US soybeans and was close to the 40-day line. It is recommended to rely on the 40-day line for long-distance water separation. On the 40th line of the vegetable dumpling station, it is recommended to rely on more than 2,200 air separation operations. Even beans are recommended to be held in short positions.

2. The 12-day contract of Ma Palm Oil continued to fall to the vicinity of the 40-day line on the 20th, and the futures price has formed a downtrend channel. Even palm oil and the outer disk to the close of the 20th to close the star, it is recommended to back to the 5-day line to operate. Even soybean oil fell below the short-term moving average, suggesting short-term short-sell operations. The vegetable oil was initially tested on the 60th line and stabilized. The day relied on the 10-day line to operate the water.

Energy and Chemical Review

Tianjiao: affected by the Fed’s “reduction”, Hujiao’s re-launch mode, the night market fluctuated within a narrow range, RU1711 contract closed at 12140, January contract closed at 14560, 1805 closed at 14945, 1809 closed at 15105, currently 11, 1 spread 2420, 1, 5 spread 385, 5, 9 spread 160. In the news, at 2 am Beijing time on Thursday (September 21), the Fed announced that interest rates will remain unchanged, but announced that it will begin to shrink in October, and will begin to reduce about 4.2 trillion US dollars of public debt and mortgage loans in October. The Support Securities (MBS) portfolio initially reduced the reinvestment of monthly maturity securities by up to $10 billion and is expected to raise interest rates once this year. Thai raw material market, Hat Ya USS price 51.78 baht / kg (-0.1), tobacco tablets 53.88 baht / kg (+0.5), cup rubber 43.5 baht / kg (+0), glue 50 baht / kg (-0.5). Domestic raw material market Yunnan glue 12 (-0.1) yuan / kg, rubber block 11 (-0.2) yuan / kg, Hainan private glue 12 (-0.2) yuan / kg. In terms of finished products, the domestic spot price is 1510-1530 (-70) USD/ton, the domestic cargo price is 1530-1560 (-80) USD/ton, the US dollar cigarette spot price is 1680-1700 (-100) USD/ton, Singapore ship The price of goods is 1550-1580 (-80) US dollars / ton, the price of Thai factory cargo is 1600-1620 (-50) US dollars / ton, the price of Vietnam 3L plastic spot is 12200-12400 (-500) yuan / ton, RMB mixed rubber 12100- 12,150 (-550) yuan / ton. In terms of synthetic rubber, the price of Huadong Qiluding Benzene 1502 is 12400-12800 (-300) yuan/ton, and the price of Huadong Daqing Petrochemical Shunting is 12700-13000 (-200) yuan/ton. The price difference between Hujiao and Nikko is 405 USD, the outer sheet of tobacco is 1730-1750 (-100) USD/ton, the spread of Hujiao and imported US dollar cigarettes is -1004 yuan/ton, and the import window of tobacco is closed. The price difference between Japan's main rubber and Singapore's standard rubber was 398 US dollars/ton. The spot price fell sharply today, and the synthetic rubber continued to fall, synthesizing a small amount of premium natural rubber. Southeast Asia is about to enter the peak season of supply. The high price difference has also made this year's arbitrage volume very large. At present, the spread of concessional arbitrage discs has increased. After October, the tire factory's willingness to purchase has weakened. The recent appreciation of the renminbi has also formed a negative for Hujiao. It is difficult to change the weak position. At the end of September, RU1801 is expected to fall to around 14,000.

LL: L1801 broke down yesterday, breaking through the 60-day moving average, falling 1.96% to 9520 all day, coal chemical auction price of 9400, futures premium spot 120 points, 15 price difference currently 55. In terms of overhaul, the large-scale installation and maintenance of the previous period was basically resumed. Shenhua Xinjiang’s 270,000-ton high-pressure installation was temporarily parked on July 22, and the vehicle was produced at 2,426H last night. Zhongtian Hechuang 300,000 tons of LL equipment was parked on July 20. Shenhua Baotou 300,000 tons of full-density device began to be shut down for maintenance on September 12, and it is estimated that the parking inspection will last for about 15 days. In terms of new production capacity, the Shenhua Ning coal-to-liquids project Phase II was put into operation on September 9, 2017. The naphtha cracking trial operation produced propylene on the 11th, ethylene on the 12th, and successfully produced the polyethylene on the 13th. , marking the successful commissioning of this project. The unit is scheduled to stop on the 15th and is expected to restart after eleven. The latest petrochemical stocks were 750,000 tons, a significant increase. On the supply side, the basis is narrowed, and the mid-stream inventory is dominant. The LL registered warehouse receipts of Dashang LL is about 55,000 tons, which is a bearish disk. The downstream operating rate has steadily increased, and the operating rate of agricultural film has reached 48%. In the short term, the environmental impact has not been completely eliminated. When the market declines and ends, downstream demand becomes the key to solving the inventory of the lake. Technically, after the plastics index breaks the 60-day moving average, it will test the support level below 9400. It is expected that this support level will fluctuate widely, and it is not possible to rule out further decline. In the early stage, the short positions will continue to be held. Investors who have not entered the market can try to short the rallies and treat them shortly within the day. For arbitrage, it is recommended to consider the L-PP1801 contract.

PP: PP1801 fell 2.19% to close at 8610, Shenhua bid price was 8650, and PP15 spread closed at -1 yesterday. In terms of overhaul, Changzhou Fude 300,000 tons PP device has no clear driving time. The Shenhua Baotou Coal Chemical Project PP plant (300,000 tons/year) produces L5E89. The manufacturer is expected to start parking for about 15 days on September 12. The Pucheng clean energy PP unit (400,000 tons/year) was originally planned to be overhauled around September 10 and is now postponed until mid-to-late October. The total capacity of the two lines of Datang International Duolun Coal Chemical PP Plant is 460,000 tons/year. It will be shut down for maintenance from September 11 and is expected to last for 30 days. Zhongtian Hechuang PP loop pipe installation (350,000 tons/year) was temporarily parked on September 12 due to low storage of propylene tanks. In terms of new production capacity, the Shenhua Ning coal-to-liquids project Phase II 600,000 tons/year PP new plant is scheduled to stop in October. At present, the upstream coal-to-liquids production has been discontinued, and the downstream PP plant continues to open a line due to the stock of raw materials. 1102K. On the supply side, the registered warehouse receipts of the Taishang Institute PP are about 50,000 tons, and the pre-entry insurance covers are shipped in large quantities, which is a bad one. When the market callback ends, downstream demand becomes the key. At present, the downstream operating rate has remained stable and there has not been any substantial improvement. However, the environmental impact will not eliminate the downstream demand, only the demand will be post-installed, and the later operating rate will continue to rise. Technically, after the PP index breaks the 60-day moving average, it will test the support level below 8460. It is expected that this support level will be wide and fluctuating, and it is not possible to rule out further decline. In terms of arbitrage, LL welcomes the peak season of shed film demand, and PP new capacity is more than LL in the second half of the year. It is recommended to consider the L-PP1801 contract set. The current price difference is 910, which is lower than the historical average price difference of 1056 in the past year. In the early stage, the short positions will continue to be held. Investors who have not entered the market can try to short the rallies and treat them shortly within the day.

Methanol: The methanol port market has fallen sharply, the inland market has risen partially, and the game between the low inventory of the factory and the high inventory of local downstream raw materials is expected to narrow the market in the short term, the commodity is weak, and the commodity sentiment is expected in the short term. Weakly organized. In terms of spot price, the spot transaction in Jiangyin and Changzhou was around 2760-2780 yuan/ton, the spot transaction in Zhangjiagang was around 2760-2770 yuan/ton, the Nantong area was around 2800-2820 yuan/ton, and the Ningbo area was around 2820-2840 yuan/ton. . The focus of the South China market has declined. The mainstream transaction in the Guangdong market is 2840-2880 yuan/ton. The trading volume is generally low, and the Fujian area has less offer. From a technical point of view, the daily line breakdown trend line down to the previous neckline support, the short-line neckline and the Bulin lower rail may have some support, but the overall short-term trend is weak, and is expected to continue. The operation is based on wait and see.

Early review of non-ferrous metals

copper

The metal night plate fell overall, and the Shanghai copper night plate was adjusted back. Due to the slowdown of China's economic data, Shanghai copper fell for 8 consecutive trading days, with a strong support of 50,000 integer points, and short-term prices are expected to support the rebound. Last week, LME copper stocks continued to surge to more than 300,000 tons, which has risen more than 40% since the beginning of September, putting pressure on the market. Previously, China restricted the import of seven categories of waste. In July, the volume of scrap copper imports fell by 15.45% month-on-month, and the import volume may decline further. The supply of raw materials is still tight. The demand for downstream power grids and home appliances has maintained rapid growth. As copper prices continue to fall back, downstream demand for replenishment is still increasing. At present, it is dragged down by the surrounding metals, and the upward trend of the weekly line has not yet broken. It is recommended to do more on dips.

aluminum

Shanghai aluminum night plate callback. Due to the high price of thermal coal and alumina, the cost support of aluminum ingots has increased. In Shandong Province, Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang, there are a total of 4.56 million tons of electrolytic aluminum illegal production capacity, while China has ordered 28 cities to limit production of electrolytic aluminum and alumina by 30% during the heating season. The total capacity of electrolytic aluminum is 17.48 million tons, accounting for 40.35% of the country's total production capacity. In the later period of environmental protection and limited production, the progress of new capacity production will slow down due to compliance indicators. It should be noted that the domestic spot market has not improved, and the inventory continues to be high to historical highs. The bulls are expected to have limited upside momentum after release.

Zinc

The Shanghai Zinc 24200 first-line support is effective, and the night plate is adjusted back to around 24,800. Recently, the import window of zinc ingots will open, and the future imports will remain high, which will put some pressure on domestic prices. China's zinc production continued to decline in July and August, and fell 4.6% year-on-year to 494,000 tons in August. In August, some local mining enterprises and refineries have restricted production and shut down, and the supply side has declined overall. The mine is converted to refined zinc. Stocks in the two cities fell to historical lows, and domestic social inventories continued to decrease to around 100,000 tons. The support under the zinc price is strong. After the callback stabilizes, it is recommended to do more on the dips.

nickel

Shanghai nickel night plate callback is the largest in color. Upstream Indonesian mine exports may not be as expected, and in October the Philippines' main nickel-producing areas entered the rainy season, the domestic spot market fell, and nickel-mineral port stocks began to decline in demand for ferronickel. Downstream stainless steel stocks also returned to low levels, steel mills profit and demand expectations will improve to provide some support for nickel prices. However, LME and the inventory in the previous period are still at a high level, which puts pressure on nickel prices. The short-term sustained decline has released high risk, and the 60-day moving average support is strong. It is recommended to wait and see, and the mid-line still has upward momentum.

The above comments were provided by Li Xiaodong, Zhou Yifang, Bian Shuyang, Xu Yuyin, Wang Zeyong, Feng Xiao, Sheng Wenyu, He Lin, Liu Bingxin.

(Editor: Shao Yidi HF116)