The price of cotton rose from madly to tumbled cotton and was very anxious and suffering.

The price of cotton rose from madly to tumbled cotton and was very anxious and suffering.

The plunge in cotton prices that began in mid-November continued, and the decline was even more dramatic than when it rose.

On the 23rd, the cotton price index fell 1.7% further and closed at 27,881 yuan/ton. Since November 12, the cotton price index has fallen by 8 trading days, and the cumulative decline has exceeded 10.9%.

The "flowers of evil" that have fallen after the cotton price fell, is that the wealth of the middlemen who tried to profit by using cotton was drastically reduced. On the 22nd, Qin Qin Zhanhua of Binzhou Zhanhua said quickly that his heart was very anxious and very painful.

The "Focus" under the plunge of cotton prices

Hua Qinxing owns a small lint processing plant and still has 30 tons of lint. His anxieties and uneasiness stemmed from the “dragging and falling” of current cotton prices.

On Tuesday, the cotton price index fell again by RMB 474/ton to close at 28,355 yuan/ton, a decrease of nearly 1.7%. This is already the eighth consecutive trading day since the November 11 cotton price index, and the cumulative decline has exceeded 3,421 yuan/ton.

This directly reflects on the cotton purchase price and lint price that are closely linked with Hua Qin Xing - currently operating a small lint processing plant - the cotton purchase price determines the cost of the plant, and the lint price is related to its income. .

On the 22nd, data from Zhuo Chuang Information indicated that the current purchase price of cottonseed in Shandong was 5.8 yuan/kg, which was nearly 20% lower than the highest figure of 7.2 yuan/kg this year. At the same time, "the price of lint is also very unsatisfactory, the current ex-factory price is only 26,000 yuan / ton." Huaqin Xing said.

Not long ago, the price of lint was once soared in a short period of time until it reached an all-time high of 31,500 yuan/ton. At that time, "doing clothes is not as good as cotton," and the benefit brought by the significant increase in lint price is significantly higher than the industry that suffers from the rise in the appreciation of the renminbi and the increase in labor costs.

Hua Qinxing is the "adherent" and "practicer" of this view. On October 27th, the businessman, who was "pursuiting the biggest profits," had already decided to stop selling lint to wait for further market price increases. At that time, the local cotton purchase price in Zhanhua had skyrocketed to around 6.4 yuan/kg. “The risk of the purchase price of 6.4 yuan/kg of seed cotton is already considerable,” recalls Huai, but at the time when the ex-factory price of lint was soaring, there were still a large number of traders “tipping” to acquire cotton. The lint factory was also “aside Sales of lint, while purchasing seed cotton."

The price of cotton rose, and the business was also difficult. “In the future, the price of cotton will rise.” On October 27th, Hua Qinxing explained to the newspaper why he was picking up cotton. He said that the price of cotton in the previous period was continuously rising sharply. He was watching the high market and eating. Into the bottom of cotton.

This is indeed the case. On the day before the 27th, Zhuchuang Information provided data that the purchase price of cotton in major producing areas such as Shandong, Xinjiang, Hebei, and Anhui all reached RMB 6/kg. On the same day, the cotton price index closed at 26,205 yuan/ton.

In fact, since the cotton price index began to rise since September 2, it began to decline as of November 12. It has been rising for 30 consecutive trading days. In the past two months or so, the cotton price index started at 18012 yuan per ton, and it ended up at a record high of 31,302 yuan per ton since the cotton price was released. The cumulative increase was 13290 yuan per ton, or more than 74%. .

The sharp decrease in cotton production caused by weather is considered to be the most important reason for the increase in cotton prices. On September 28, the newspaper was told during an interview in Binzhou, Zhanhua, “the National Top 100 Cotton Producers” that because of the continuous rainy weather in autumn, the local cotton production even exceeded 50%.

On September 28th, Xiong Qinwang, an elder brother who co-operated the lint factory with Hua Qinxing, said in an interview with this newspaper that due to the continuous increase in the price of cotton, the lint factory where the cotton factory was located had experienced cash cost increases. Insufficient shortage of flow can only rely on the payment of IOUs to local cotton farmers to purchase cotton for maintenance. In addition, Hua Qin Wang is also preparing to borrow 2 million yuan from the bank in order to tide over difficulties.

"There are many people who lost millions."

At that time, Hua Qinwang said in an interview with this newspaper that according to the local purchase price of 5.2 yuan/kg on September 28th and the ex-factory price of 4th lint around 23,000 yuan/ton, it still could make a meagre profit. ”

But these “profits are better than nothing” profits have also disappeared from the plunge of cotton prices that began on November 12 and have continued until. On November 22, because a lint with a total of 30 tons of cars failed to be shot in time, Huan Qin sadly stated that “This year's business is equal to nothing.” According to the introduction of flowers, with the price of lint from the highest point 31,500 yuan / ton dropped to the current 26,000 yuan / ton, in nearly a week, the value of 30 tons of lint fell to 165,000 yuan. Qin Huanxing further disclosed that local cotton farmers who suffered heavy losses due to the collapse of cotton prices “had a lot of people” and “many people lost millions.”

“For traders, although the risk brought by cotton prices is indeed increasing,” said Zhao Hong, a research cotton analyst at Zhuo Chuang Information Technology Co., Ltd., the impact of the steep increase in risk, the current cotton industry has fallen into a desolation situation. “Whether cotton Enterprises or traders are all watching."

Zhao also claimed that a series of macro-policy policies recently introduced by the state to suppress the rapid increase in price growth are the main reasons for pushing cotton prices from falling to falling. The measure adopted by the State Council Standing Conference held on the 17th to contain price controls included measures such as "strengthening cotton shipments in Xinjiang" and "outlawing unlicensed acquisitions and unauthorised processing of cotton", and other measures to regulate cotton prices. At the same time, the effect of the liquidity reduction brought about by the two consecutive upward adjustments of the deposit reserve ratio within 9 days is also emerging.

However, there are also judgments that since the overall cotton market is still in a tight supply and demand situation this year, cotton prices may still rebound in the late period. “I don’t have to worry about selling the remaining lint.” On the 22nd, he said happily and diligently that although he could not estimate the duration and effect of this round of macroeconomic adjustments, “It is also worth losing money to sell now. Etc. "Perhaps, in his view, in the ups and downs of cotton prices, which are composed of sudden and sudden ups and downs, cotton operations seem to have become a **.

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